Courage, flair, heroism, devouring ambition, all these they had in abundance; realism and worst-case analysis, let alone defeatism or appeasement, were alien to them entirely.
Average-case analysis was first introduced to overcome the limitations of worst-case analysis, however the difficulty is saying what an average case is.
My experimental research shows that if defensive pessimists try to raise their expectations, or avoid playing through a worst-case analysis, their anxiety increases and their performance suffers.